| # | Strategy | Status | Capital $ | Start | Trades | Win | Realized net $ | Open $ | Return | Annualised | Fees $ | Fees / gross | Max DD $ | In market | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HL funding harvest (+ martingale sub) | live | 40 | 2026-10-23 | 13 | 46% | +1.60 | +0.08 | +4.2% | +148.3% | +0.20 | 11% | -1.01 | 100% | BEST SO FAR: keep |
| Venue check: HL fills+funding, non-BTC/ETH/SOL; open GOAT short, NIL long; book by sub: harvest +0.23, martingale +1.46 · Book: +1.70 Capital: main's HL account net deposits $40 (shared with S1's HL legs) · Biggest risk: Unhedged directional on illiquid alts; martingale tail (a runner that never rebounds; ladder cap $88, −30% stop) · Limited by: Funding extremes regime + $11 units / HL margin guard (70%); 13 trades = small sample, 3 trades make the profit Why: Only live strategy positive on venue data. Small sample and concentrated (ALT martingale ≈ +$1.30 of it). Not capital-bound: units are $11, so more money doesn't help yet. | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | Derive liquidation bidder | live | 12 | 2026-10-19 | 1 | – | -2.98 | +4.25 | +10.6% | +270.5% | +0.02 | 1% | – | – | PROMISING: fund PRIME |
| Venue check: subs value $13.27 vs $12.00 net in; cash $9.02; held: SOL-20261106-95-P 1.05591 ($4.25) · Book: +2.27 (book +$2.27 on the perp exit is vs a discounted cost basis; Derive marks the same sale −$0.80) Capital: bidder subs 118010/118011 net cash in · Biggest risk: Inventory: won slices are held long (owner rule); the SOL 95-P is worth $0 if SOL ≥ 95 at the 11-06 expiry · Limited by: Cash ($5 in MIDCAP sub; PRIME, 58% of auctions, uncovered) and auction flow (~0.4/h, many tiny) Why: One auction won at a 10% discount; the +MTM is mostly an open put that may expire at $0. Structurally bound by cash and auction coverage, so the marginal dollar matters most here. | |||||||||||||||
| 3 | Funding carry (delta-neutral, 3 venues) | live | 52 | 2026-10-19 | 6 | 17% | -0.43 | 0.00 | -0.8% | -20.7% | +0.26 | 156% | -0.45 | 33% | IDLE: park |
| Venue check: HL BTC/ETH/SOL legs +1.59 · dYdX -0.31 · Derive 118003 -1.71 · Book: -0.43 Capital: dYdX $34.5 + Derive 118003 net in; HL legs share main's HL account · Biggest risk: Legging/execution across venues (10-27 SOL incident −$0.24); exit basis slippage ≈ the whole carry · Limited by: Funding regime: no pair has cleared the 0.004%/h entry bar since it was raised 10-30; ~0.3% round-trip cost at $46/leg Why: −$0.43 over 6 trades; costs ≈ the carry at this size and the regime is flat. Its $50 on dYdX/Derive sits unused. | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | HIP-3 cross-dex carry | paper | 22 | 2026-10-28 | 1 | 0% | -0.15 | -0.16 | -1.4% | -95.6% | +0.06 | 64% | -0.15 | 49% | PAPER: costs too high |
| Venue check: paper, $11/leg at impact prices; open UNITREE Capital: paper $11/leg · Biggest risk: Deployer oracles; impact crossing ≈0.47% per entry · Limited by: Entry costs exceed the carry for short-lived spreads; live needs riskd builder-dex support Why: Paper loses: crossing costs eat the carry. | |||||||||||||||
| 5 | VWAP accumulate → exit | paper | 100 | 2026-10-31 | 4 | 50% | -0.46 | 0.00 | -0.5% | -55.2% | – | – | -0.69 | 66% | PAPER: likely kill 11-21 |
| Venue check: paper $50/config; costs included in bp Capital: paper $50 per config · Biggest risk: No edge out of sample: P&L ≈ beta − costs (backtest: 0 of 48 configs held up) · Limited by: Decision after 2026-11-21 Why: Paper confirms the backtest: no edge after costs. | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | Derive options structural-arb monitor | monitor | – | 2026-07-14 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0% | MONITOR: not tradeable at our size |
| Venue check: paper TRUE_ARB: 59 settled, $741 at displayed size (not our size); 2 in the last 30 d; last 2026-10-29 Capital: none · Biggest risk: n/a (no orders) · Limited by: Derive $0.50/leg base fee: a crossing needs > $1 credit at displayed size, which is never shown Why: Real mispricings exist on paper but at sizes and fees we can't hit. | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | Cross-venue dislocation monitor | paper (monitor) | – | 2026-10-19 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0% | MONITOR: no signals |
| Venue check: 11,538 scans, 2 cleared gap ≥0.3% and net ≥0.1%; no paper entries Capital: none · Biggest risk: Two-venue execution on a fleeting gap · Limited by: Opportunity: gaps after fees almost never reach the entry bar Why: Gaps after fees almost never reach the bar. | |||||||||||||||
| – | Momentum doubler | off (proposal) | – | – | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0% | OFF |
| Venue check: plan only (strategies/MOMENTUM_DOUBLER.md), never armed Capital: none · Biggest risk: Doubling ladder = small chance of a big win; no proven edge · Limited by: Not approved Why: Proposal only. | |||||||||||||||